In previous years, trends in the TradFi market have caused risk-on assets like crypto to spike in Q2, especially in April. This could provide a much-needed bullish narrative for the space.
A report from QCP Capital looked at a few trends, such as the S&P 500’s performance, but Bitcoin’s price history over the last decade is the clearest market indicator.
Could Q2 2025 Be Good For Crypto?
According to a new report from QCP Capital, the crypto markets may enter a bullish period in Q2 2025. It draws this conclusion from a few sources, primarily related to the entangled nature of crypto and TradFi markets.
However, this data is corroborated by a broad spectrum of crypto-native trends.
“One of the fastest US stock downturns in recent history may well be behind us—or so JPMorgan and a growing chorus of strategists are telling their clients. Q2, and April in particular, has historically been one of the best periods for risk assets,” QCP claimed via Telegram.
With how desperate the crypto market has been for a bullish narrative, this Q2 speculation comes as a breath of fresh air. QCP pointed to recurring trends in TradFi sectors like the S&P 500, and some of these are even more pronounced in crypto.
Case in point, the price of Bitcoin is a great bellwether. Bitcoin is highly linked with the broader crypto market, and it has frequently rallied in Q2, especially in April.
For example, in 2017, Bitcoin’s price hovered around $1,000 until it broke $2,000 in mid-May, prompting a bigger rally. In 2021, a gargantuan price spike culminated in April and briefly dropped in May.
In 2024, Q2 was a significant bullish period for crypto. BTC climbed quickly after the approval of Bitcoin Spot ETFs in January, breaching $60,000 in late February and early March, setting a new all-time high by April.
At the same time, high-yield credit markets demonstrated a solid performance, with CC-rated bonds overperforming. This shows a healthy appetite for risk-on assets.
Additionally, receding tariff fears are already causing a jump in risk-on-asset performance across the board in 2025. Hopefully, this retreat will continue boosting crypto markets in Q2.
If these broader trends continue like they have in previous years, the market might enter a positive cycle in the coming months.
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