- Strong retail sales could boost the USD, pressuring BTC, while weak numbers may fuel Fed rate cut speculation, benefiting Bitcoin.
- A BOJ rate hike could dampen Asian crypto sentiment, while the BOE’s stance may impact European markets.
- A rise in jobless claims could push the Fed toward easing, lifting crypto, while strong labor data may keep risk assets under pressure.
US Retail Sales: A Pulse on Consumer Spending
The week starts with the release of US retail sales data, which will provide key insights into consumer spending trends. January’s unexpected drop raised concerns, and economists are watching whether February continues this trend.
- Stronger-than-expected retail sales → Economic resilience → USD strengthens → Crypto prices face pressure.
- Weaker-than-expected retail sales → Fed rate cut speculation rises → Bitcoin and crypto could rally.
On March 18-19, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech under intense scrutiny. The Fed has held interest rates steady, but upcoming data on inflation and employment could shift its stance.
- Hawkish tone (no rush to cut rates) → Strengthens USD → Bearish for crypto.
- Dovish hints (softer stance on inflation) → Bitcoin rallies as liquidity expectations rise.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday. Japan’s economy has shown strong GDP growth, fueling speculation of a rate hike, which could impact crypto markets.
- BOJ hikes rates → Strengthens yen → Crypto sentiment in Asia weakens.
- BOJ holds steady → More liquidity in markets → Potential upside for crypto.
On Thursday, jobless claims data will reveal fresh insights into the US labor market. Markets will watch for any rise in unemployment claims, which could influence the Fed’s monetary policy.
- Higher jobless claims → Fed may ease rates → Crypto bullish.
- Stable or declining claims → Fed remains cautious → Crypto under pressure.
The Bank of England (BOE) will announce its rate decision on Thursday, adding another macroeconomic event that could impact crypto markets. While most expect no change, any deviation could influence investor sentiment.
- BOE keeps rates steady → Pound stabilizes → Neutral for crypto.
- BOE signals a rate cut → Speculative interest in crypto may rise.
With Bitcoin trading below $84,000, macroeconomic events this week could impact BTC and market sentiment. From Fed policy to BOJ and BOE rate decisions, traders will be watching closely for signals that could shape Bitcoin’s next move.
