A simple bet on whether the Ukrainian President would wear a suit has turned into a messy showdown on the leading prediction market.
A Polymarket bet on whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would “wear a suit before July” is being disputed, despite several major news outlets describing him wearing a suit at his June 24 NATO appearance.
The outcome, which some thought was clear, is now being questioned by users who argue the outfit doesn’t meet the definition.
The market, which closed on June 30, was set to resolve as “Yes” if Zelenskyy was photographed or videotaped in a suit between May 22 and June 30. The footage also needed to be authentic and publicly released during that window, with resolution based on a “consensus of credible reporting,” according to the market’s description.
At the NATO summit at The Hague, Zelenskyy wore a matching black blazer and pants, along with a collared shirt. Outlets like the BBC and Reuters referred to the look as a suit. The PolymarketIntel account on X also described it that way in an X post on June 25.
Still, some bettors argue the outfit wasn’t formal enough to count. As of press time, over $58 million in volume has been recorded, with millions backing a “No” resolution.
It’s unclear who is behind the push to reject the suit claim, but some seem to be hoping for a repeat of what happened in May, when a similar outfit worn by Zelenskyy for a meeting in Rome with U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio was ruled not a suit by UMA, the decentralized oracle protocol that handles dispute resolutions on Polymarket.
The Defiant reached out to Polymarket for comment but did not receive a response by the time of publication.
UMA users vote on outcomes by bonding crypto, and decisions can be challenged in several rounds. Thus far, the voting has already had two disputes overturning claims that Zelenskyy did wear a suit.
The final decision is expected by July 4 at 2:09 AM ET, though the result remains unclear. UMA, which has handled thousands of cases, is again facing scrutiny over how it rules on outcomes that involve subjective interpretations.
The latest controversy comes as Polymarket is reportedly close to finalizing a $200 million funding round, which will push the company’s valuation above the $1 billion threshold.
